California’s 2027 Housing Forecast Is Here: What It Means for Sonoma County Buyers and Sellers
Hi neighbors, Cari here.
Every fall, the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.) shares its forecast for the year ahead. The 2027 forecast came out on October 7, and I read the whole thing so you don’t have to. Here’s the short version, in plain English.
The big picture: a slow, steady comeback
C.A.R. says the market is in a gradual recovery. Their words for 2027 are modest price growth, steady affordability, and more homes coming to market. No crash and no frenzy, just a market that starts moving again.
1. More homes are expected to sell
C.A.R. forecasts about 277,900 existing single-family homes sold in California in 2027. That’s up 3.7% from about 268,100 expected this year. After a few quiet years, that’s a real step forward.
2. Prices are expected to keep inching up
The statewide median price is forecast to rise 1.4% to about $894,400 in 2027. That follows a projected 0.8% rise to about $882,200 this year.
If you’ve been waiting for prices to fall, this forecast doesn’t point that way. C.A.R. says there still aren’t enough homes for sale, and that keeps prices supported.
3. Mortgage rates are expected to stay around 6.6%
C.A.R. expects the average 30-year fixed rate to hold at about 6.6% in 2027, the third year in a row. That’s higher than before the pandemic, but lower than the 50-year average of 7.7%.
My take: your rate and your loan plan matter just as much as the price. Two buyers can look at the same home and have very different monthly payments depending on how they finance it.
4. More sellers may start to move
Right now, many owners are staying put because they don’t want to give up their lower mortgage rate. C.A.R. says that “lock-in” effect will continue, but it expects more homes to come to market as conditions settle. More choices are good news for buyers.
What this means for you in Sonoma County
These numbers cover all of California. Every town in Sonoma County has its own story. Windsor, Santa Rosa, Healdsburg, and Rohnert Park can all feel very different from one street to the next. That’s why I always look at the local numbers with my clients.
If you’re buying: Waiting for a big drop is risky. Focus on what you can control: your budget, your pre-approval, and the neighborhoods you love. When the right home shows up, you’ll be ready.
If you’re selling: More buyers are expected to return in 2027. Homes that are priced well, staged well, and shown well will stand out. Good prep now can mean a stronger offer later.
If you’re not sure yet: That’s okay. A quick chat can show you where you stand, with no pressure.
Let’s talk about your plan
I was born and raised in Sonoma County, I live in Windsor, and I’ve been helping families buy and sell here for more than 20 years. If you want to know what the 2027 forecast could mean for your buying power or your home’s value, I’d love to help.
📞 Call or text me anytime at (707) 548-1963
🌐 sellingsonomacountywithcari.com
Source: California Association of REALTORS®, 2027 California Housing Market Forecast (released Oct. 7, 2026): car.org/aboutus/mediacenter/newsreleases/2026releases/2027housingforecast
Statewide forecast numbers are projections, not guarantees, and local conditions vary.
